Exploration of Asthma & Allergy

Table 2. Temporal trends in pollination of the Cupressaceae family.

Reference (publication date)	Region (number of sites)	Study period	Methodology	Trend identification technique	PIn (grains per cubic meter of air per decade and significance)	PSS (days per decade and significance)	PSD (days per decade and significance)
[20] (2010)	NW Italy (1)	1981–2007	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ (*)	– (3.3)	+ (6.7)
[26] (2003)	Switzerland (1)	1979–1999	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ (*)	– (12.9; *)	No trend
[27] (2025)	Texas, USA (1)	2009–2023	Hirst-type	Least square regression	+ (20.5; ) for Juniperus*
[36] (2016)	Spain (12)	1994–2013	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ at 7 sites out of 12
[37] (2021)	Basel, Switzerland (1)	1969–2018	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ (~2,050; ***)	– (~5.5; **)	+ (~4.4; **)
[47] (2021)	Bavaria (8)	1989–2018	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+	–
[51] (2024)	NE Italy (20)	2001–2022	Hirst-type	Theil-Sen estimator	+ (916)	– (8.8)	+ (8)
[56] (2012)	Europe (97)	1977–2009 (partially)	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ (***)
[57] (2020)	N & Central Italy (9)	2000–2016	Hirst-type	Non-parametric Mann-Kendall test	No trend	–	No trend
[62] (2025)	N Italy (1)	1997–2023	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ ns	– ns	+ ns
[73] (2002)	W of the NL (1)	1969–2000	Hirst-type	Linear regression		– (6.25, *) for Juniperus*
[73] (2002)	W of the NL (1)	2000s–2090s	Modelling	Unspecified		– (0.8)
[74] (2025)	Iberian Peninsula (12)	1994–2023	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ (1,745 on average, but up to 8,535 in Granada)	Slightly + (1.6)
[81] (2007)	Thessaloniki (1)	1987–2005	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ (~1,435)	No trend	No trend
[82] (2024)	Rome (1)	1997–2016	Hirst-type	Linear regression	No trend
[86] (2020)	Andalusia, Spain (3)	1994–2017	Hirst-type	Linear regression	– in Málaga, + in Granada (***), ns elsewhere	– in Granada (**) and Málaga (), ns in Córdoba
[88] (2021)	Milan, Italy	1995–2017	Hirst-type	Unspecified	+ (2,100, especially after 2001)
[89] (2024)	Madrid region (10)	1994–2022	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ (especially after 2012)
[90] (2024)	N Italy (1)	1989–2018	Hirst-type	Linear regression + Mann-Kendall test	+ (***)		+ (**)
[91] (2016)	S Spain (1)	1996–2010	Hirst-type	Linear regression + local regression method (LOESS)	+ (5,670; ***)
[92] (2021)	Oklahoma, USA (1)	1996–2020	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ (~2,200; ***)	– (ns)	+ (***)
[93] (2023)	Andalusia (1)	1998–2020	Hirst-type	Linear regression + Mann-Kendall test + Sen’s slope estimation	+ (19; *)	– (1.3; ns)
[94] (2018)	S Spain (1)	1994–2016	Hirst-type	Z coefficient estimation + Mann-Kendall test	+ (~2,000; **)	– (ns)	+ (~17; ***)
[95] (2022)	Madrid (1)	1979–2018	Hirst-type	Linear regression	+ (~3,000 gr/m³ per 1°C annual mean increases in temperature; *)	– (~7.75)	+ (~3.25; ns)
[96] (2025)	SW Spain (1)	1993–2022	Hirst-type	Linear regression + Mann-Kendall test + Theil-Sen estimator	No trend	No trend	No trend
[97] (2016)	SW Spain (1)	1993–2013	Hirst-type	Linear regression		+ (ns)
[98] (2007)	Central Italy (5)	2006–2036 vs. 1990–2005	Phenological model			– (4.2)	– (0.8)
		2037–2068 vs. 2006–2036	Phenological model			– (4.2)	– (0.1)
		2069–2100 vs. 2037–2068	Phenological model			– (4.7)	– (0.1)

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The grey backgrounds correspond to studies that have made projections about the future. +: trend towards increased pollen concentration (PIn), earlier onset of pollination (PSS), or longer pollen season (PSD); –: trend towards decreased pollen concentration (PIn), later onset of pollination (PSS), or shorter pollen season (PSD); *: p < 0.05; **: p < 0.01; ***: p < 0.001. PIn: pollen integral; PSS: pollen season start date; PSD: pollen season duration; NW: northwest; NE: northeast; N: north; ns: non-significant; W: west; NL: Netherlands; S: south; LOESS: locally estimated scatterplot smoothing; SW: southwest.

Declarations

Author contributions

JPB: Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Writing—original draft, Writing—review & editing. LM: Conceptualization, Writing—review & editing. Both authors read and approved the submitted version.

Conflicts of interest

Laurent Mascarell, who is the Editorial Board Member and Guest Editor of Exploration of Asthma & Allergy, had no involvement in the decision-making or the review process of this manuscript. LM is also an employee of Stallergenes Greer. The other author declares no conflicts of interest.

Ethical approval

Not applicable.

Consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent to publication

Not applicable.

Availability of data and materials

Not applicable.

Funding

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Copyright

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