Table Info

Table 2.

Number of deaths (mortality) in 2020 and 2030 from colorectal, colon and rectal carcinomas

Cancer subtype	Total number of deaths in 2020	Total number of deaths in 2030	Percent change
Colorectal cases (total)	53,069	64,889	22.3%
Colorectal cases in males	28,405	34,317	22.2%
Colorectal cases in females	24,664	30,185	22.4%
Colon cancer cases (total)	37,930	46,833	23.5%
Colon cancer cases in males	19,020	23,519	23.7%
Colon cancer cases in females	18,910	23,314	23.3%
Rectal cancer cases (total)	15,139	18,066	19.3%
Rectal cancer cases in males	9,385	11,194	19.3%
Rectal cancer cases in females	5,754	6,871	19.4%

Declarations

Author contributions

The author contributed solely to the work.

Conflicts of interest

The author declares that he has no conflicts of interest.

Ethical approval

Not applicable.

Consent to participate

Not applicable.

Consent to publication

Not applicable.

Availability of data and materials

The datasets analysed for this study can be found in the Global Cancer Observatory (https://gco.iarc.fr/).

Funding

Not applicable.

Copyright

References

Cancer Stat Facts: Common Cancer Sites [Internet]. Bethesda: National Cancer Institute; [cited 2021 Mar 10]. Available from: https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/common.html

EwingI,HurleyJJ,JosephidesE,MillarA. The molecular genetics of colorectal cancer. Frontline Gastroenterol. 2014;5:26–30. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

VogelsteinB,FearonER,HamiltonSR,KernSE,PreisingerAC,LeppertM,et al. Genetic alterations during colorectal-tumor development. N Engl J Med. 1988;319:525–32. [DOI] [PubMed]

HenleySJ,WardEM,ScottS,MaJ,AndersonRN,FirthAU,et al. Annual report to the nation on the status of cancer, part I: national cancer statistics. Cancer. 2020;126:2225–49. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

AbualkhairWH,ZhouM,AhnenD,YuQ,WuXC,KarlitzJJ. Trends in incidence of early-onset colorectal cancer in the United States among those approaching screening age. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3:e1920407. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

MeesterRGS,MannalitharaA,Lansdorp-VogelaarI,LadabaumU. Trends in incidence and stage at diagnosis of colorectal cancer in adults aged 40 through 49 years, 1975–2015. JAMA. 2019;321:1933–4. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

O’SullivanDE,SutherlandRL,TownS,ChowK,FanJ,ForbesN,et al. Risk factors for early-onset colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2021;[Epub ahead of print]. [DOI]

SiegelRL,MillerKD,FuchsHE,JemalA. Cancer statistics, 2021. CA Cancer J Clin. 2021;71:7–33. [DOI] [PubMed]

JemalA,SiegelR,XuJ,WardE. Cancer statistics, 2010. CA Cancer J Clin. 2010;60:277–300. [DOI] [PubMed]

10.

Cancer Tomorrow [Internet]. Lyon: International Agency for Research on Cancer; c1965–2020 [cited 2021 Apr 1]. Available from: https://gco.iarc.fr/tomorrow

11.

FerlayJ,ColombetM,SoerjomataramI,MathersC,ParkinDM,PiñerosM,et al. Estimating the global cancer incidence and mortality in 2018: GLOBOCAN sources and methods. Int J Cancer. 2019; 144:1941–53. [DOI] [PubMed]

12.

ChanAT,GiovannucciEL. Primary prevention of colorectal cancer. Gastroenterology. 2010;138: 2029–43.e10. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

13.

LynchHT,SmyrkTC,WatsonP,LanspaSJ,LynchJF,LynchPM,et al. Genetics, natural history, tumor spectrum, and pathology of hereditary nonpolyposis colorectal cancer: an updated review. Gastroenterology. 1993;104:1535–49. [DOI] [PubMed]

14.

VasenHF,TomlinsonI,CastellsA. Clinical management of hereditary colorectal cancer syndromes. Nat Rev Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2015;12:88–97. [DOI] [PubMed]

15.

HalfE,BercovichD,RozenP. Familial adenomatous polyposis. Orphanet J Rare Dis. 2009;4:22. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

16.

MishraN,HallJ. Identification of patients at risk for hereditary colorectal cancer. Clin Colon Rectal Surg. 2012;25:67–82. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

17.

TiwariAK,RoyHK,LynchHT. Lynch syndrome in the 21st century: clinical perspectives. QJM. 2016;109:151–8. [DOI] [PubMed]

18.

KoornstraJJ,MouritsMJ,SijmonsRH,LeliveldAM,HollemaH,KleibeukerJH. Management of extracolonic tumors in patients with Lynch syndrome. Lancet Oncol. 2009;10:400–8. [DOI] [PubMed]

19.

TuohyTM,RoweKG,MineauGP,PimentelR,BurtRW,SamadderNJ. Risk of colorectal cancer and adenomas in the families of patients with adenomas: a population-based study in Utah. Cancer. 2014;120:35–42. [DOI] [PubMed]

20.

TaylorDP,StoddardGJ,BurtRW,WilliamsMS,MitchellJA,HaugPJ,et al. How well does family history predict who will get colorectal cancer? Implications for cancer screening and counseling. Genet Med. 2011;13:385–91. [DOI] [PubMed]

21.

AtkinWS,MorsonBC,CuzickJ. Long-term risk of colorectal cancer after excision of rectosigmoid adenomas. N Engl J Med. 1992;326:658–62. [DOI] [PubMed]

22.

YashiroM. Ulcerative colitis-associated colorectal cancer. World J Gastroenterol. 2014;20:16389–97. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

23.

OlénO,ErichsenR,SachsMC,PedersenL,HalfvarsonJ,AsklingJ,et al. Colorectal cancer in ulcerative colitis: a Scandinavian population-based cohort study. Lancet. 2020;395:123–31. [DOI] [PubMed]

24.

JessT,RungoeC,Peyrin-BirouletL. Risk of colorectal cancer in patients with ulcerative colitis: a meta-analysis of population-based cohort studies. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2012;10:639–45. [DOI] [PubMed]

25.

OlénO,ErichsenR,SachsMC,PedersenL,HalfvarsonJ,AsklingJ,et al. Colorectal cancer in Crohn’s disease: a Scandinavian population-based cohort study. Lancet Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2020;5:475–84. [DOI] [PubMed]

26.

NottageK,McFarlaneJ,KrasinMJ,LiC,SrivastavaD,RobisonLL,et al. Secondary colorectal carcinoma after childhood cancer. J Clin Oncol. 2012;30:2552–8. [DOI] [PubMed]

27.

GiniA,MeesterRGS,KeshavarzH,OeffingerKC,AhmedS,HodgsonDC,et al. Cost-effectiveness of colonoscopy-based colorectal cancer screening in childhood cancer survivors. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2019;111:1161–9. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

28.

YamadaA,KomakiY,KomakiF,MicicD,ZullowS,SakurabaA. Risk of gastrointestinal cancers in patients with cystic fibrosis: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Lancet Oncol. 2018;19:758–67. [DOI] [PubMed]

29.

HadjiliadisD,KhorutsA,ZauberAG,HempsteadSE,MaisonneuveP,LowenfelsAB,; Cystic Fibrosis Colorectal Cancer Screening Task Force. Cystic fibrosis colorectal cancer screening consensus recommendations. Gastroenterology. 2018;154:736–45.e14. [DOI] [PubMed]

30.

ShaukatA,KahiCJ,BurkeCA,RabeneckL,SauerBG,RexDK. ACG clinical guidelines: colorectal cancer screening 2021. Am J Gastroenterol. 2021;116:458–79. [DOI] [PubMed]

31.

BrennerH,HoffmeisterM,ArndtV,HaugU. Gender differences in colorectal cancer: implications for age at initiation of screening. Br J Cancer. 2007;96:828–31. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

32.

SchoenfeldP,CashB,FloodA,DobhanR,EastoneJ,CoyleW,et al. Colonoscopic screening of average-risk women for colorectal neoplasia. N Engl J Med. 2005;352:2061–8. [DOI] [PubMed]

33.

Lansdorp-VogelaarI,van BallegooijenM,ZauberAG,BoerR,WilschutJ,WinawerSJ,et al. Individualizing colonoscopy screening by sex and race. Gastrointest Endosc. 2009;70:96–108.e24. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

34.

ParkJM,ChoiMG,KimSW,ChungIS,YangCW,KimYS,et al. Increased incidence of colorectal malignancies in renal transplant recipients: a case control study. Am J Transplant. 2010;10:2043–50. [DOI] [PubMed]

35.

DelhougneB,DeneuxC,AbsR,ChansonP,FierensH,Laurent-PuigP,et al. The prevalence of colonic polyps in acromegaly: a colonoscopic and pathological study in 103 patients. J Clin Endocrinol Metab. 1995;80:3223–6. [DOI] [PubMed]

36.

KarahaliosA,EnglishDR,SimpsonJA. Weight change and risk of colorectal cancer: a systematic review and meta-analysis. Am J Epidemiol. 2015;181:832–45. [DOI] [PubMed]

37.

BaillyL,FabreR,PradierC,IannelliA. Colorectal cancer risk following bariatric surgery in a nationwide study of French individuals with obesity. JAMA Surg. 2020;155:395–402. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

38.

YangYX,HennessyS,LewisJD. Type 2 diabetes mellitus and the risk of colorectal cancer. Clin Gastroenterol Hepatol. 2005;3:587–94. [DOI] [PubMed]

39.

YuharaH,SteinmausC,CohenSE,CorleyDA,TeiY,BufflerPA. Is diabetes mellitus an independent risk factor for colon cancer and rectal cancer? Am J Gastroenterol. 2011;106:1911–21. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

40.

MaJ,PollakMN,GiovannucciE,ChanJM,TaoY,HennekensCH,et al. Prospective study of colorectal cancer risk in men and plasma levels of insulin-like growth factor (IGF)-I and IGF-binding protein-3. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1999;91:620–5. [DOI] [PubMed]

41.

ChaoA,ThunMJ,ConnellCJ,McCulloughML,JacobsEJ,FlandersWD,et al. Meat consumption and risk of colorectal cancer. JAMA. 2005;293:172–82. [DOI] [PubMed]

42.

MacLennanR,MacraeF,BainC,BattistuttaD,ChapuisP,GrattenH,et al. Randomized trial of intake of fat, fiber, and beta carotene to prevent colorectal adenomas. J Natl Cancer Inst. 1995;87:1760–6. [DOI] [PubMed]

43.

BotteriE,IodiceS,BagnardiV,RaimondiS,LowenfelsAB,MaisonneuveP. Smoking and colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis. JAMA. 2008;300:2765–78. [DOI] [PubMed]

44.

PandeM,LynchPM,HopperJL,JenkinsMA,GallingerS,HaileRW,et al. Smoking and colorectal cancer in Lynch syndrome: results from the colon cancer family registry and the University of Texas M.D. Anderson Cancer Center. Clin Cancer Res. 2010;16:1331–9. [DOI]

45.

LoConteNK,BrewsterAM,KaurJS,MerrillJK,AlbergAJ. Alcohol and cancer: a statement of the American Society of Clinical Oncology. J Clin Oncol. 2018;36:83–93. [DOI] [PubMed]

46.

FedirkoV,TramacereI,BagnardiV,RotaM,ScottiL,IslamiF,et al. Alcohol drinking and colorectal cancer risk: an overall and dose-response meta-analysis of published studies. Ann Oncol. 2011;22:1958–72. [DOI] [PubMed]

47.

GillessenS,TempletonA,MarraG,KuoYF,ValtortaE,ShahinianVB. Risk of colorectal cancer in men on long-term androgen deprivation therapy for prostate cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2010;102:1760–70. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

48.

LinJH,GiovannucciE. Sex hormones and colorectal cancer: what have we learned so far? J Natl Cancer Inst. 2010;102:1746–7. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

49.

GiovannucciE,ColditzGA,StampferMJ. A meta-analysis of cholecystectomy and risk of colorectal cancer. Gastroenterology. 1993;105:130–41. [DOI] [PubMed]

50.

van der LindenW,KatzensteinB,NakayamaF. The possible carcinogenic effect of cholecystectomy. No postoperative increase in the proportion of secondary bile acids. Cancer. 1983;52:1265–8. [DOI] [PubMed]

51.

IssaIA,NoureddineM. Colorectal cancer screening: an updated review of the available options. World J Gastroenterol. 2017;23:5086–96. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

52.

BoyleT,KeegelT,BullF,HeyworthJ,FritschiL. Physical activity and risks of proximal and distal colon cancers: a systematic review and meta-analysis. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2012;104:1548–61. [DOI] [PubMed]

53.

TerryP,GiovannucciE,MichelsKB,BergkvistL,HansenH,HolmbergL,et al. Fruit, vegetables, dietary fiber, and risk of colorectal cancer. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2001;93:525–33. [DOI] [PubMed]

54.

OrlichMJ,SinghPN,SabatéJ,FanJ,SveenL,BennettH,et al. Vegetarian dietary patterns and the risk of colorectal cancers. JAMA Intern Med. 2015;175:767–76. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

55.

BinghamSA,DayNE,LubenR,FerrariP,SlimaniN,NoratT,et al.; European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Dietary fibre in food and protection against colorectal cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC): an observational study. Lancet. 2003;361:1496–501. [DOI] [PubMed]

56.

ChoiSW,MasonJB. Folate and carcinogenesis: an integrated scheme. J Nutr. 2000;130:129–32. [DOI] [PubMed]

57.

ColeBF,BaronJA,SandlerRS,HaileRW,AhnenDJ,BresalierRS,et al.; Polyp Prevention Study Group. Folic acid for the prevention of colorectal adenomas: a randomized clinical trial. JAMA. 2007;297:2351–9. [DOI] [PubMed]

58.

LarssonSC,OrsiniN,WolkA. Vitamin B6 and risk of colorectal cancer: a meta-analysis of prospective studies. JAMA. 2010;303:1077–83. [DOI] [PubMed]

59.

HoltPR,AtillasoyEO,GilmanJ,GussJ,MossSF,NewmarkH,et al. Modulation of abnormal colonic epithelial cell proliferation and differentiation by low-fat dairy foods: a randomized controlled trial. JAMA. 1998;280:1074–9. [DOI] [PubMed]

60.

BaronJA,BeachM,MandelJS,van StolkRU,HaileRW,SandlerRS,et al. Calcium supplements for the prevention ofcolorectal adenomas. Calcium Polyp Prevention Study Group. N Engl J Med. 1999;340:101–7. [DOI] [PubMed]

61.

KimHS,NewcombPA,UlrichCM,KeenerCL,BiglerJ,FarinFM,et al. Vitamin D receptor polymorphism and the risk of colorectal adenomas: evidence of interaction with dietary vitamin D and calcium. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2001;10:869–74. [PubMed]

62.

GrauMV,BaronJA,SandlerRS,HaileRW,BeachML,ChurchTR,et al. Vitamin D, calcium supplementation, and colorectal adenomas: results of a randomized trial. J Natl Cancer Inst. 2003;95:1765–71. [DOI] [PubMed]

63.

ByersSW,RowlandsT,BeildeckM,BongYS. Mechanism of action of vitamin D and the vitamin D receptor in colorectal cancer prevention and treatment. Rev Endocr Metab Disord. 2012;13:31–8. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

64.

LarssonSC,BergkvistL,WolkA. Magnesium intake in relation to risk of colorectal cancer in women. JAMA. 2005;293:86–9. [DOI] [PubMed]

65.

RothwellPM,WilsonM,ElwinCE,NorrvingB,AlgraA,WarlowCP,et al. Long-term effect of aspirin on colorectal cancer incidence and mortality: 20-year follow-up of five randomized trials. Lancet. 2010;376:1741–50. [DOI] [PubMed]

66.

MeyskensFLJr, McLarenCE,PelotD,Fujikawa-BrooksS,CarpenterPM,HawkE,et al. Difluoromethylornithine plus sulindac for the prevention of sporadic colorectal adenomas: a randomized placebo-controlled, double-blind trial. Cancer Prev Res (Phila). 2008;1:32–8. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

67.

PoynterJN,GruberSB,HigginsPD,AlmogR,BonnerJD,RennertHS,et al. Statins and the risk of colorectal cancer. N Engl J Med. 2005;352:2184–92. [DOI] [PubMed]

68.

KedikaR,PatelM,Pena SahdalaHN,MahgoubA,CipherD,SiddiquiAA. Long-term use of angiotensin converting enzyme inhibitors is associated with decreased incidence of advanced adenomatous colon polyps. J Clin Gastroenterol. 2011;45:e12–6. [DOI] [PubMed]

69.

BoudreauDM,KoehlerE,RulyakSJ,HaneuseS,HarrisonR,MandelsonMT. Cardiovascular medication use and risk for colorectal cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2008;17:3076–80. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

70.

ParkCH,KimNH,ParkJH,ParkDI,SohnCI,JungYS. Individualized colorectal cancer screening based on the clinical risk factors: beyond family history of colorectal cancer. Gastrointest Endosc. 2018;88:128–35. [DOI] [PubMed]

71.

ObrandDI,GordonPH. Continued change in the distribution of colorectal carcinoma. Br J Surg. 1998;85:246–8. [DOI] [PubMed]

72.

PleskoI,BoyleGS,OndrusovaM,TomasekL,KubikA. Dominant position of colorectal cancer in Slovakia: the old-new problem for cancer control. Neoplasma. 2008;55:10–5. [PubMed]

73.

AsteriaCR,PucciarelliS,GerardL,MantovaniN,PaganiM,BocciaL,et al. The impact of colorectal screening program on the detection of right-sided colorectal cancer. A 5-year cohort study in the Mantua District. Int J Colorectal Dis. 2015;30:1627–37. [DOI] [PubMed]

74.

AsteriaCR,LucchiniG,GuardaL,RicciP,PaganiM,BocciaL. The detection of interval colorectal cancers following screening by fecal immunochemical test may predict worse outcomes and prompt ethical concerns: a 6-year population-based cohort study in a full district. Eur J Cancer Prev. 2019;28:17–26. [DOI] [PubMed]

75.

WardZJ,BleichSN,CradockAL,BarrettJL,GilesCM,FlaxC,et al. Projected U.S. state-level prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity. N Engl J Med. 2019;381:2440–50. [DOI] [PubMed]

76.

DareS,MackayDF,PellJP. Relationship between smoking and obesity: a cross-sectional study of 499,504 middle-aged adults in the UK general population. PLoS One. 2015;10:e0123579. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

77.

YapR,WilkinsS,StaplesM,OlivaK,McMurrickPJ. The effect of diabetes on the perioperative outcomes of colorectal cancer surgery patients. PLoS One. 2016;11:e0167271. [DOI] [PubMed] [PMC]

78.

BenoistS,PanisY,AlvesA,ValleurP. Impact of obesity on surgical outcomes after colorectal resection. Am J Surg. 2000;179:275–81. [DOI] [PubMed]